Forest carbon incentive programs for non-industrial private forests in Oregon (USA): Impacts of program design on willingness to enroll and landscape-scale program outcomes

Privately-owned forests in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) are important potential carbon sinks and play a large role sequestration storage. Non-industrial private forest (NIPF) owners constitute substantial portion of overall landownership productive regions PNW; however, little is known about their preferences for non-market incentive programs aimed at increased storage sequestration, specifically by limiting timber harvest, how those might impact outcome programs. We simulated landscape-scale outcomes hypothetical western Oregon (USA) combining empirical models NIPF owners' participation with spatially explicit data. surveyed landowners to determine willingness enroll various management that varied terms harvest restrictions, contract length, annual payment amounts, cost-share percentages, as well program framing (e.g., versus health). used multinomial logistic regression model whether based on attributes, landowners' attitudes toward climate change management, past planned future activities, socio-demographics. found 36% respondents stated they would probably or definitely least one were shown while 21% refused all offered. Our final landowner indicated higher payments strongest positive predictors vs. not enroll. Landowners' was influenced either “forest carbon” health”; next predictor enrollment after payments. By simulating six policy relevant scenarios, we illustrate carefully designed could have tangible protection benefits (16.25 50.31 MMT CO2e cumulative) relatively low costs per MT ($3.60 $7.70). highlight tradeoffs between maximizing providing longer term carbon. This research contributes literature design communication aims aid makers administrators seek ways engage carbon-oriented management.